The Man Who Correctly Predicted Trump’s 2016 Win Predicts Something New for 2020


Opinion| In 2016, Professor Norpoth, a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University was ridiculed after he claimed that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the presidential election over Hillary Clinton.

On election night, the NYT predicted that Hillary had a 92% chance of winning the election.

Prof Norpoth has developed a model and it has been correct in every election since 1996. He has now made his prediction for 2020.

He says that President Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November. That’s even worse than his rating for Hillary.

From The Gateway Pundit

We reported that his 2016 forecast rested on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.

Norpoth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction.

Helmut said that he never saw an individual win an election who placed 5th in New Hampshire (Biden).  He also said that President Trump did very well in the primaries this year while Biden didn’t do anything until he won South Carolina.

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