Iowa Caucus Poll: Trump Holds Commanding Intra-GOP Lead


Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over several other potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates in Iowa, a survey of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers obtained by Breitbart News shows.

The survey, from pollster Rick Shaftan’s Neighborhood Research and Media, shows Trump at nearly 56 percent with 55.7 percent—leading his next closest possible rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by more than 40 percent.

DeSantis, at 12.3 percent, is the only other candidate to break double digits at this stage, per the poll. The third-place candidate is South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, at 2.1 percent, and no other candidate gets more than 2 percent—while 20.8 percent are undecided.

Former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) each get 1.6 percent in the poll, and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley is stalled out at 1.1 percent. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who won the Iowa caucuses in 2016, is less than 1 percent, at just 0.8 percent. Sens. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) also get 0.8 percent in the survey. No other potential candidates are named.

Technically, nobody has announced any 2024 GOP presidential campaigns yet, and if Trump runs, a lot of Republicans are expected to defer to him. Noem, for instance, said in a recent Breitbart News exclusive On The Hill video special interview that she would back Trump if he runs in 2024. DeSantis, meanwhile, has reportedly told Trump he would back him but has not said so publicly.

While Trump does have a commanding lead, undoubtedly, he does have work to do to shore up dissent inside the GOP should he decide to run again. A memo from Shaftan accompanying his poll results’ release includes this revelation: “35 percent of respondents did not pick Trump for any of their three choices including 14 percent of very conservative voters, 43 percent of somewhat conservative voters and half of moderates.”

Should he run, Trump also faces what Shaftan describes as a “reverse gender gap,” where men are much more supportive of him than women. Shaftan writes that, in respondents under age 35, “men were much more pro-Trump and women less so”–something he described as a “striking difference.”

But among older, more conservative women, Shaftan found that Trump is dominant…. (Read more)

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